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《护士学院杀人事件》[英]P.D. 詹姆斯(作者)epub+mobi+azw3
Posted on Sunday November 18, 2018

内容简介 护士学院的示范课上,一名实习护士被当众毒杀,死状极其凄惨!所有的证据都指向另一名护士,她却在第二天深夜中毒身亡。 一时间人心惶惶,总护士长、三位护士长、五位实习护士等人的爱憎都在这栋不祥的大楼中交织,使案件变得更为扑朔迷离。 人人都在试图掩饰自己的秘密,人人都像命案真正的凶手。 在这里,温柔的善意、单纯的友情、热烈的爱情,是否也会变成危险的杀机? 两百多年的古老医院、十二位可疑的嫌疑人、两起残忍的毒杀案…… 只有真正睿智的读者,才能在两天内洞悉真相!

The post 《护士学院杀人事件》[英]P.D. 詹姆斯(作者)epub+mobi+azw3 appeared first on Fun88.

《跃马大唐(自制)》大苹果(作者)epub+mobi
Posted on Sunday November 18, 2018

内容简介 天宝四年,盛世大唐。 安禄山正在崛起,杨国忠将权倾朝野,歌舞升平中孕育刀光剑影,太平盛世里暗藏血雨腥风。 一名小小坊丁,崛起于市井之间,他是诗坛翘楚,他是天下枭雄。 绝代佳人,为谁舞霓裳羽衣! 大唐天下,谁将主社稷沉浮! 特别说明 排版/制作:小书屋

The post 《跃马大唐(自制)》大苹果(作者)epub+mobi appeared first on Fun88.

《爱的边境》[以]朵莉・拉宾雅(作者)epub+mobi+azw3
Posted on Sunday November 18, 2018

内容简介 《爱的边界》是拉宾雅半自传性质的长篇小说,讲述以色列翻译家莉雅特旅居纽约时邂逅了来自巴勒斯坦的艺术家希米,两人谱出意外的恋曲,却难以突破种族和身份问题的障碍。随着莉雅特回国的日子一天天逼近,双方家人的压力自边境处传来,而他们不同的成长环境也在两人的关系中筑起了一道无形的藩篱。爱情是否可以打破藩篱和边境?

The post 《爱的边境》[以]朵莉・拉宾雅(作者)epub+mobi+azw3 appeared first on Fun88.

邓聿文:中期选举后美国对华政策猜想
Posted on Saturday November 17, 2018

美国中期选举后,特朗普政府的对华政策及美中关系如何演化,不仅是美中两国,也是国际社会关注和探讨的问题。我的看法是,近期而言,可能有所缓和,特别是在贸易方面;中长期而言,美中关系大概率会进入一个结构性的对抗阶段。 由于民主党将控制众议院,共和党控制参议院,以及舆论普遍把这次中期选举看作是对特朗普个人执政效果的一次测试(他本人也是如此看的)。因此,中选的结果显示美国民众在某种程度上对特朗普是不满意的,反映到政策的制定和执行上来,特朗普会受到更多约束。这对美中关系无疑会投下一些变数。 作为当今世界最重要的双边关系,美中关系不仅对中国重要,对美国恐怕亦如此。鉴于美国基本完成了对中国认知的整体转换,即把中国看作美国未来最主要的竞争对手乃至某种程度的敌人,在对待中国的态度上,美国的精英阶层和民主共和两党基本一致,对特朗普迄今表现出的对华强硬,民主党也是支持的,从此角度看,有人担忧,在接下来的对华关系上,恐会出现两党竞相展示对华强硬,螺旋式加码,以体现“政治正确”的态势。 客观地说,不排除这种情况。 目前两国正在为G20会议上的“特习会”紧锣密鼓地准备。在将近半年的贸易对峙后,两国领导人都感受到了对方的意志和压力,摸到了对方的底牌,理应认识到,这样对抗下去,对两国经济都会带来损害,只是损失大小而已,故既然决定见面,就需要取得象征性成果,好对世人交代,否则,只是在会上争吵一番,还不如不见。从这个基本常识出发,我坚持我向来的观点:此次“特习会”,两国首脑会对贸易战达成一个休战协议,至少在这方面会形成共识,年底休战的可能性还是很大的。 对特朗普而言,如果贸易战达成休战协议或共识,其好处也是明显的。鉴于中期选举共和党丢了众议院,特朗普在两年后的总统大选中,要想赢得连任,相对有些困难,关键看经济能否挺住。虽然贸易战目前尚未对美国民众造成多大损害,但进入10月后,美股表现很不佳,考虑美股“经济晴雨表”作用远比中国股市明显,这至少反映了资本市场投资者对贸易战继续打下去的担忧。事实上,美国学者也已警告,美国经济已处于金融危机复苏后的高点,要维持目前的增长水平难处比较大。倘若贸易战升级后继续打下去,美国经济也将会受很大影响,其滞后效应会在未来两年里显现。特朗普自然不愿看到这种情况发生,冲击其选情。民主党虽然乐于看到,但亦要防止特朗普和共和党倒打一把,把这归咎于民主党的逼迫所致。 美中在贸易问题上尚有互相挪腾和妥协的空间,但相比而言,两国在台湾、南海等地缘政治问题上,因为涉及各自的核心利益,其强硬对抗的态势很难改观。最近召开的美中外交和安全对话就表明了这点。双方对此毫无共识,各说各话,互不示弱。但这是否说明冲突就一定会即将或不久发生?也不一定。外交和安全对话虽然达不成任何结果,然而,至少让双方明白对方的底线,哪些是不能轻易触碰的,故意测试和不断冲撞对方底线(主要指美国)会带来什么严重后果(前不久的南海军舰阻拦事件已清楚传达这个信息),从而在以后行动时小心避免,做好危机管控工作。 另外,鉴于民主党对人权问题的关注和重视,普遍认为,过去被弱化的人权因素今后会在美中关系中凸显出来,特朗普会对中国打人权牌。这个问题我想应该这样来看:它在特朗普的对华外交决策中可能会得到一定程度的加强,但在其余下的两年任期内,很难上升为美国对华的主要政策施压工具。原因在于,美国国会虽然在外交政策上有一定话语权,但比起内政,总统在外交上的权力更大。由于特朗普本人对人权以及一定程度上对意识形态不感兴趣;再加上对华政策若打人权和意识形态牌,得分的将是民主党而非特朗普,他应该不会让民主党从中得分而有助民主党的总统选情。就中国当局而言,西方对中国人权的攻击带来的更多是难堪,不像贸易和地缘利益之争会带来实实在在的利益损害,因此,人权和意识形态牌不一定能达到很好效果。 尽管如此,有一点需要提醒外界注意,不同于特朗普过于强调美国“优先”,一言不合就“退群”,以及动辄惩罚盟友的自我孤立做法,民主党更注重建制和现有的同盟关系和世界秩序,通过修复、加强、改造和完善国际组织、规则和同盟功能来达到强化对国际格局和秩序的控制目标,所以,在民主党重新控制众议院后,在未来两年的美中关系中,特朗普大概率会回归民主党的立场。 如前所述,民主党和特朗普在遏制中国的问题上,立场是一致的,差别在于方式,民主党不赞成特朗普撇开盟友和“退群”做法,同中国单打独斗,而希望和西方盟友抱团,并利用国际组织和规则共同来遏制中国。特朗普在和中国斗法两年后,也发现缺少盟友助阵,仅凭美国之力很难降伏中国,他已经在改变策略,开始借重盟友和国际组织与规则的力量围堵中国。美墨加三国自贸协定针对中国的“毒丸”条款就显示了这点,民主党控制众院后,会加快特朗普的这一转向。 总之,短期看,美中关系经过近一年短兵相接的较量,目前已经触底,继续恶化和失控的概率不大,有可能盘整一段时间触底反弹。但从未来两年乃至更长时段来看,无论特朗普是否连任,都不乐观。美中在经济、地缘政治和意识形态上的竞争会更剧烈,特别是随着中国经济总量逼近甚至超过美国,“老大”和“老二”固有的矛盾会进一步激化。当然这里还取决中国的反应。如果中国的“世界野心”不收敛,国内人权和意识形态状况不能得到改善,同时对美国的打压和围堵硬碰硬,美中经济脱钩和进入冷战将是大概率事件,甚至在台湾和南海发生局部热战皆有可能。 用基辛格的话说,美中再也回不到从前了。但这并非一定是坏事,它取决于两国领导人的应对尤其是中国的做法。中国要想赢得继续发展的空间,最低限度,是回到邓小平的改革开放上来。 镜像链接:谷歌镜像 | 亚马逊镜像相关日志2018/11/17 — 特朗普:或许美中贸易协议将“很快”达成 ( 镜像链接: 亚马逊镜像 | 谷歌镜像 )2018/11/17 — 美国之音:特朗普称可能不会对中国施加更多关税 ( 镜像链接: 亚马逊镜像 | 谷歌镜像 )2018/11/16 — 陶杰:不跟你丧玩了 ( 镜像链接: 亚马逊镜像 | 谷歌镜像 )2018/11/16 — 弧度度:美国为何突然亮起红灯? ​ ( 镜像链接: 亚马逊镜像 | 谷歌镜像 )2018/11/16 — 高善文2018年11月15日路演观点摘录 ( 镜像链接: 亚马逊镜像 | 谷歌镜像 )2018/11/15 — 彭斯:除非北京改弦更张才能避免中美冷战 ( 镜像链接: 亚马逊镜像 | 谷歌镜像 )2018/11/14 — 美国之音:白宫经济顾问库德洛称美国欢迎恢复美中贸易谈判 ( 镜像链接: 亚马逊镜像 | 谷歌镜像 )2018/11/14 — RFI:姆努钦与刘鹤电话 特习会前贸易战寻降温 ( 镜像链接: 亚马逊镜像 | 谷歌镜像 )2018/10/29 — 邓聿文:美中贸易战会不会在年底休战? ( 镜像链接: 亚马逊镜像 | 谷歌镜像 )2018/07/20 — 邓聿文:中美贸易战背景下,今年北戴河会议令外界格外关注 ( 镜像链接: 亚马逊镜像 | 谷歌镜像 )

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Persebaya Surabaya Borong Penghargaan Pekan Ke-23
Posted on Friday October 05, 2018

Berita bola – Kemenangan besar Persebaya Surabaya atas Mitra Kukar sukses membuat klub itu memborong penghargaan di pekan ke-23 Liga 1 Indonesia. […] Berita bola terkini

The post Persebaya Surabaya Borong Penghargaan Pekan Ke-23 appeared first on M88asia | M88 bertaruh.

Prediksi Sriwijaya FC vs Bali United 6 Oktober 2018
Posted on Friday October 05, 2018

Gilabola.com – Berikut prediksi skor dan jadwal pertandingan Liga 1 Indonesia antara Sriwijaya FC vs Bali United yang digelar di Stadion […] Berita bola terkini

The post Prediksi Sriwijaya FC vs Bali United 6 Oktober 2018 appeared first on M88asia | M88 bertaruh.

Prediksi Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya 6 Oktober 2018
Posted on Friday October 05, 2018

Gilabola.com – Berikut prediksi skor dan jadwal pertandingan Liga 1 Indonesia antara Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya yang digelar di Stadion […] Berita bola terkini

The post Prediksi Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya 6 Oktober 2018 appeared first on M88asia | M88 bertaruh.

Persib Bandung Menjamu Madura United di Jayapura
Posted on Thursday October 04, 2018

Berita bola – Persib Bandung harus jalani partai kandang di luar Bandung terkait sanksi yang dijatuhkan Komisi Disiplin PSSI. Jadwal terdekat, Persib […] Berita bola terkini

The post Persib Bandung Menjamu Madura United di Jayapura appeared first on M88asia | M88 bertaruh.

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